2024 NFL mock draft: Offense makes modern history in post-Super Bowl mock draft

The Kansas City Chiefs won the 2024 Super Bowl to finish off the NFL postseason. Now, all 32 teams can fully turn their attention to the offseason, including the 2024 NFL Draft.

The 2024 NFL Draft may be two and a half months away but the intrigue is already building up. The Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine Bowl are in the books but we’re just two weeks away from the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. A total of 321 prospects have been invited to the combine to run through a series of tests, get medically examined by league doctors, and have official heights and weights determined.

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With the official order now set for the 2024 NFL Draft, USA Today’s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz released an updated mock draft this week. It included many of the usual top prospects like quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye but sees even more offensive players in the first round.

Here’s what to know about the 2024 mock draft and why it predicts a modern NFL draft record.

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How 2024 mock drafts predict historic numbers

Since 2000, the first round of NFL drafts have seen a similar share of offensive and defensive players. On average, defense has held a slight edge (16.1 to 15.6 in average players drafted). The most players drafted on offense or defense in the first round since 2000 is 19. That happened four times: 2017 (defense), 2009 (offense), 2006 (defense), and 2004 (offense).

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Why are 2024 mock drafts leaning so heavily to offense?

This year’s group of NFL draft prospects is likely the best since 2020. That year included future franchise quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, star wide receivers CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk, All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs, and defensive stars like linebacker Patrick Queen and cornerback A.J. Terrell all in the first round alone.

The 2024 NFL Draft is even deeper with top talent.

Quarterbacks Williams and Maye are top prospects and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels is rising up mock drafts. He’ll likely be a top-10 pick with dual-threat talent and a track record of steady improvement. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is rising in mock drafts, too, thanks to his age (21), athleticism, and potential.

This year’s wide receiver class is one of the best in years. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. alone would likely make it the best since 2020; ESPN’s draft grades rate him at a 96, better than any wide receiver since 2015. Add in Washington’s Rome Odunze and LSU’s Malik Nabers, either of whom could be the top wide receiver prospect in most other draft classes, and it’s a loaded position in the draft this year.

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Why offensive line is quietly dominating 2024 mock drafts

Quarterbacks and wide receivers take the headlines as the first six picks of Middlehurst-Schwartz’s mock draft and 10 of the 32 overall. But offensive line is the most dominant position group in the mock draft with nine players in the first round.

Offensive tackles Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and Olumuyiwa “Olu” Fashanu (Penn State) have long been considered the top prospects at the position and first-round locks. Both had standout seasons in 2023 to back up their impressive physical traits. They’re likely a step above the rest but they’re not alone in first-round status.

Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga played very well at the Senior Bowl and Alabama’s JC Latham‘s drawn comparisons to Darnell Wright, the 10th overall pick last season. Fauga’s going 13th to the Las Vegas Raiders and Latham’s going at No. 14 to the New Orleans Saints in Middlehurst-Schwartz’s mock draft.

Oregon center/guard Jackson Powers-Johnson and Oklahoma tackle Tyler Guyton shined at the Senior Bowl as well. Powers-Johnson could be the first interior offensive lineman drafted thanks to his talent and age (21).

Georgia tackle Amarius Mims had just eight starts in college but, at 6-foot-7 and 330 pounds, has plenty of potential. Arizona’s Jordan Morgan and Washington’s Troy Fautanu both offer positional flexibility and could move inside from tackle to guard or stay at the outside thanks to their athleticism.

If Middlehurst-Schwartz’s predictions follow through, the 2024 NFL Draft would have the most first-round offensive linemen since 2013 with nine players.

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When is the 2024 NFL Draft?

The 2024 NFL Draft is scheduled to start on Thursday, April 24 with round 1. Rounds 2-3 will be Friday, April 25 and rounds 4-7 will wrap up on Saturday, April 26.

2024 NFL mock draft selections

Here’s the full list of Middlehurst-Schwartz’s mock draft:

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers) – Caleb Williams, QB, USC

2. Washington Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

3. New England Patriots – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

8. Atlanta Falcons – Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

9. Chicago Bears – Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

11. Minnesota Vikings – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

12. Denver Broncos – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

14. New Orleans Saints – JC Latham, OT, Alabama

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

16. Seattle Seahawks – Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

18. Cincinnati Bengals – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

19. Los Angeles Rams – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa

21. Miami Dolphins – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C/G, Oregon

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns) – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

24. Dallas Cowboys – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

25. Green Bay Packers – Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston Texans) – Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

28. Buffalo Bills – Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

29. Detroit Lions – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

30. Baltimore Ravens – Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri

31. San Francisco 49ers – Troy Fautanu, G, Washington

32. Kansas City Chiefs – Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 NFL mock drafts: Offense dominates in post-Super Bowl mock draft